What is it worth? Basic economics dictates that if a scarce item is in demand, the value will increase. However, collecting has changed. A doll now is rarely what you have paid. The reason is twofold. First, wealth among succeeding generations has begun to decrease rather than increase. Generations following Boomers earn less, have less ability to pay for and house such luxury goods today, are burdened by student debt and high mortgage rates. Alternatively, they are renters, living free of mortgages and clutter and have little extra space for large collections. Those buyers may not even see value in expensive antiques. An adjustment is coming and may have already arrived for the highest priced dolls as the collecting community becomes younger and less affluent. Rather counterintuitively, the value of small more affordable antique all-bisque dolls has plummeted to nearly half of what buyers had paid in the early 2000s. Collectors looking to sell today would be fortunate to get 40% of the value they originally paid in the 1990s or early 2000s. Collectors looking to sell today may receive at best 40% of what they originally paid decades ago. However, some rare German character dolls, and truly rare French fashion dolls with trousseau seem to increase in value.

Where are all the great dolls? The second reason, apart from and a doll is rarely worth what you pay is the lack of inventory. A perusal of auction catalogs or trade periodicals from a decade or two ago feature a staggering amount of inventory that once existed. Much of this abundance was due to the availability of dolls in many different venues, such as antique sales, flea markets, attics, auctions, and dealers. Doll collecting was affordable, and many great collections were accumulated in the 1970s and 1980s. More recently, the advent of online sales released previously unattainable inventory to a larger community. But once the initial flush of online sales faded and attics emptied and inventory flowed into the hands of the few and affluent, inventory has dwindled. Abundance and rare examples occur only when a noted museum or collector has decided to give up their collection, according to Stuart Holbrook of Theriaults, reportedly in an 8 to 10-year cycle. In years in between are when quality dolls are difficult to find. The very best of the antique doll inventory that exists in the world today has gone to only the top 10% of collectors in the world. Saving up for a really great doll is the new reality - whenever they appear. Collecting among too few has negative impacts. Due to less inventory and fewer collectors, museums have shuttered and sold their collections. Auction houses have terminated their toy and doll departments. Doll periodicals too have declined in number.

How can The Doll Detective help? We are living in a collecting environment of contraction, of less altogether. But we can still be happy with this. The next generations of collectors are moving away from collecting practices that make little sense today. They are looking for value and top quality. The Doll Detective was created to provide value through research of what we own. Information can now be obtained through a variety of means. However, I personally have found curiosity, persistence and luck to be my greatest tools for discovery. I would like to support that next generation of collectors by inspiring discovery and curiosity. I am excited to share with you what I have found.

There is a way to find value in collecting today. To protect your investment, savvy collectors should keep 3 things in mind:

1. Rareness. Is this doll truly rare - even if it is the best example you have seen? How available is this item? Does it appear at auction frequently and also languish in the dealer circuit?
2. Reconsider defects. Is a spectacular doll with a defect truly unacceptable to most other collectors? Due to dwindling inventory, defects can and should now be reassessed. Defects such a minor hairlines or paint rubs or broken fingers and toes may be the new norm. Collectors may be able disregard advice of avoiding “imperfect” examples. Perfection is rare for a reason ~ there will be fewer and fewer they command but also over-handling of such rare and delicate items as they change hands in the last 20 years alone mean that these are no longer as intact nor in the same condition as a mere 10 to 20 years earlier.
3. Are these quality trademarks present? Each of these details, or in combination, offer the highest value (suggested point values below for quick assessment):
   • Original costume/trousseau, original wig. If it can be established that a doll is wearing a factory or original costume and wig, this maximizes value. Trousseau often cost more than the doll. (10 points)
   • Very fine, even facial painting with a high degree of detail and artistry (fine eyebrows, fine and even eyelashes). Every buyer of antique bisque dolls will balk at damage to original facial paint, as this is considered the main focal point of every doll. Happily, wood and cloth dolls do not suffer in value if they have faded and cracked faces. Such defects are also acceptable to buyers due as damage due to great age or fragility of wood and cloth is understood. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. For most collectors, it is the face they must find pleasing. (9 points.)
   • Manufacturer’s marks or boutique labels. Often fine early dolls were unmarked as the doll industry prior to 1850s had not yet matured its trade networks from Germany to France, for example. A numbering system was established as dolls began to be produced en masse in factories in Germany for trade in France to identify size and mold number. Many French boutique shops bought parts of the dolls and assembled them and costumed them and applied their own shop labels. But most numbers or letters impressed into bisque heads and bodies were done in porcelain factories in Germany and sold to France. (8 points)
   • Spiral threaded glass eyes made of cobalt for earlier dolls, or paperweight for later dolls (7-6 points)
   • Size is also a factor. For French bebes, small (tiny) size is rare for these manufacturers and command high prices. For all bisques, the opposite is true. Larger sizes of rarer models (9-12”) command higher prices (5 points)
   • Crisp modeling. Molds could only be used a maximum of 50 times before molds would need to be remade. First-out-of-the-mold dolls have crisp features with detail of ears, nose, mouth, hands and feet (if bisque) (4 points)
   • Extra Blushing. Paint applied below the brows (mauve painting), or on the hands and feet (if bisque) add extra value (3 points).
   • Wild Cards. Likely, there are features that matter more to you than what I have listed. (1-2 points - or if they matter most, 11 points :-))

- Nicole Waller